А survey took place online in November to December 2022, commissioned by the Centre for Economic Strategy.
1003 Ukrainian adults (18+) were surveyed from all Ukrainian regions, who were living abroad (except those in Russia and Belarus). To ensure representativeness, respondents were randomly selected among customers of Kyivstar (the largest Ukrainian telecommunications company), who were abroad at the time of the survey and quotas based on the number of Ukrainian Kyivstar customers in different countries abroad were applied. Those who were selected received an SMS with an invitation to complete the online survey.
Overall, 83% of the adult refugees are women and most of them are in the age group below 65.
Most came from Kyiv (around 14% of the sample), followed by the Dnipropetrivsk oblast (12%), Kharkiv (11%) and Zaporizhzhia (9%).
• Аccording to the survey results, after the war between 0.9 and 2.7 m Ukrainians may remain abroad. In addition, between 100 and 700 thsd. Ukrainians may leave after the war ends to reunite with their families abroad. Younger people and people with higher education are relatively more likely to remain abroad after the war.
• The most important factor that could incentivize Ukrainians to return is the end of the war, the end of missile strikes and combat activities in the person’s native region (in total 85%).
• The estimated GDP loss amounts between 2.6% and 7.7% of the pre-war GDP. Thus, the loss contributes between 9%. and 26% to the GDP decline in 2022. To ensure that more Ukrainians return, the infrastructure and the housing destroyed by the war must be rebuilt swiftly.
• Meanwhile, people from the most severely affected regions should be offered some kind of assistance: either monetary or housing which could be provided either by the Ukrainian government or by international organizations. In addition, retraining programmes in relatively safe regions of Ukraine could help to equip people with new skills, which in turn would help them to find a new well-paid job.