According to the all-Ukrainian nationally representative Omnibus poll conducted by Info Sapiens on March 24-28, 2022, only 12% of Ukrainians who went abroad because of the war wanted or planned to stay there at the time of the poll.
We first counted the number of people who went abroad because of the war at the time of the poll, and then the proportion of those who want or plan to stay - the methodology is described below.
Method of estimating the number of people who went abroad because of the war:
- • The average size of an extended family was calculated as the average value of the answers to the question «What is the total number of family members close to you, including you, your parents, children, husband / wife, brother / sister)? Please consider everyone, it doesn't matter if you live together or separately".
- • The average number of extended family members (counting only parents, children, spouses, brothers / sisters) who went abroad because of the war was calculated as the average number of answers to the question «How many of your close relatives (only your parents, children, husband / wife, brothers or sisters), including you, went abroad because of the war?»
- • The number of people who went abroad because of the war (R) was calculated as the product of the share of the average number of extended family members of respondents who went abroad (FR) from the total number of extended family members (F) and the total population of Ukraine (N), except for the population of the temporarily occupied territories as of February 23, 2022: R=(FR/F)*N.
According to this formula, the estimated number of those who went abroad was 3.3 million, which is roughly in line with the UN data at the time (3.5 million.)[1].
Method of estimating the number of people who want or plan to stay abroad
- • The average number of extended family members (excluding parents, children, spouses, brothers / sisters) who went abroad because of the war and would like or plan to stay there was calculated as the average number of answers to the question «How many of them would like or plan to stay to live abroad forever?»
- • The number of people who want or plan to stay abroad (S) was calculated as the product of the share of the average number of extended family members of respondents whose members want or plan to stay abroad (FS), from the average number of extended family members of respondents who went abroad FR), and the estimated number of people who went abroad because of the war (R): S=(FS/FR)*R.
According to this formula, about 400,000 people want or plan to stay, or 12% of those who went abroad because of the war.
Information about the research
The sample of Omnibus consists of 1000 respondents. The survey was conducted using the CATI method (computer-assisted telephone interviews) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers. The sample is representative for the population aged 16 and older, by sex, age, size of settlement and region of residence. The Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol were excluded from the study, and in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts the poll was conducted only in the territories controlled by Ukraine as of February 23, 2022. Also, the poll does not cover Ukrainians who have gone abroad and residents of settlements where there is no connection.
The maximum theoretical error does not exceed 3.1%. The poll was conducted on March 24-28, 2022.